Back-of-the-Napkin Math, AI, and a Big Dose of Reality

I had a great meeting recently with an aspiring entrepreneur who wants to open a child care center. She's got hands-on experience, a clear vision for how she wants to operate, and the heart for the work—but wasn’t sure how to go from dream to doors open. Classic case of big passion meets big questions.

We started talking about startup costs, and I pulled out what I like to call the back-of-the-napkin math—just rough estimates to see if the concept is even in the ballpark. But then, I did something that really changed the conversation. I asked AI for some high-level startup numbers for the town she was eyeing. And there it was, smack in the middle of the list: fire suppression system.

Totally forgot about that.

Fire suppression is one of those costly but non-negotiable requirements when you're starting a center like this. It’s not flashy, but it’s essential for safety and licensing. And it’s not cheap. That one item turned the startup math on its head—but catching it early gave us time to adjust and plan.

That’s where AI really shined. It wasn’t giving us a business plan or running a full model, but it sparked a better conversation. It helped us see what we were missing before she poured too much time or money into something incomplete. That’s the magic of AI in these early-stage conversations—it doesn’t replace real expertise, but it gives you a head start when you don’t know what you don’t know.

We also talked about creating a savings plan—putting a little aside every month now to get ready for the upfront costs down the road. I connected her with Coastal Enterprises, Inc. (CEI), based in Brunswick, Maine. They’ve got a Child Care Business Lab that walks folks through the process of launching centers just like the one she wants to build.

The numbers can make it feel impossible. Between construction requirements, licensing, insurance, staffing—it’s a mountain. But there is a path. And like most paths worth taking, it includes savings, learning, networking, and plain old stubbornness. You don’t give up until it’s open. And then the real fun—running the thing—begins.

To borrow from The Lean Startup by Eric Ries:

“The only way to win is to learn faster than anyone else.”

That’s the game. Learn, pivot, keep going. The dream doesn’t die because it’s hard—it dies when we stop learning. But when we use tools like AI to spark smarter questions, when we lean on people and resources like CEI, we give that dream a fighting chance.

If you’ve got a big idea and you’re wondering if the numbers—or the process—make sense, let’s talk.

👉 Schedule a free call to see if working together is the right next step for you.